Coming off an unusually warm December, the lack of snow and mild temperatures trend will likely continue into the new year due to a strong El Nino in place.
Dan Cornish, meteorologist with the National Weather Service Gaylord, said just down the road from Leelanau, Traverse City observed its second warmest December on record in 2023, with an average temperature of 37.7 degrees. 2015 remains the warmest day on record with a temperature of 38.3 degrees. According to the Maple City National Weather Service (NWS) volunteer station, Leelanau County has only seen 18.6 inches of snow so far this season.
Across northern Michigan, Cornish said the state saw average temperatures range anywhere from eight to over 11 degrees warmer than normal due to a combination of factors. El Nino is the biggest driver for the warmth though, which is also affecting lake ice coverage. The average ice coverage across the Great Lakes was at .2% just days ago, Cornish added, making less than 1% of the Great Lakes covered in ice right now.
“Typically around this time of year, it’s around 9% (lake ice), so we’re certainly well below average for ice coverage across the Great Lakes as well,” Cornish said. “It’s been the main story with how little snowfall we’ve seen, you know everyone’s ready to see some — winter recreation enthusiasts and businesses across northern Michigan — everyone’s anxious for some snow, so we’re definitely monitoring that closely.”
There’s better snow chances on the horizon next week as a strong storm system is anticipated to move up into the Great Lakes region. Cornish said depending on where the system tracks will determine if Leelanau and Grand Traverse areas get snow and how much will accumulate.
Leelanau County Road Commission manager Brendan Mullane said while this winter isn’t anything like the white Christmas blizzard in 2022 and New Year’s snowfall, his crew has still been busy monitoring the roads for icy conditions. As the temperatures often fluctuate in the daytime from warm into cold at night, it makes roads icy and something the crew has to closely patrol and manage.
“Last Christmas, it felt like we got a whole year’s worth of snow in one week, but it doesn’t matter because we have patrols seven days a week. We take turns on weekends driving the roads because the only way to know for sure is by driving it,” Mullane said. “Typically the first few snows of the year are really tough because the roads warm and then turn to cold as it’s snowing and you get that really icy layer. The changing (of weather) is more frustrating to deal with.”
Road commission drivers cover about 3,600 miles in six hours when they’re out plowing the snow on roads. This past New Year’s Eve and on January 1, salt trucks were out patrolling, but the lack of snowfall expected at this time of year has definitely switched up and made their work days interesting,” Mullane said.
“We much rather it just get cold and stay cold. It’s definitely a lot easier to manage,” he said.
Rosali Collier, Leelanau County 4-H program coordinator, helps to organize and put together all of the youth programs, including its snowboard program set for January 21. With the abnormal warm temperatures and lack of snow in the region, Collier said she plans to meet in the next week with staff from The Homestead in Glen Arbor, the location where the program has been held for years, about what to do next considering the situation.
“This is not a one year situation either because of all the warming that we’ve had each winter… but at this point, I can’t say much about whether or not we’re actually holding the program or not,” Collier said. “We’ve had a hard time holding it (the snowboard program) there these last couple of years with different things happening, and the lack of snow is a big one.”
Collier said the continuing trend of warming puts their program at a disadvantage. Larger resorts like Crystal Mountain can make snow all night long, but smaller spaces like at the Homestead are limited in regards to equipment and snow machines.
In her eighth year as 4-H program coordinator now, Collier said this season is probably the least amount of consistent winter snow that she’s seen.
“It’s disappointing especially because we’re trying to revamp and bring back the program and make it strong again and this is a stumbling block, so we’ll see,” she said. “We hope it kicks up because I know a big part about what we love about Leelanau is how beautiful it is and how fun it is to get out in that white stuff… the ski program is great because it’s for families too, so they all get reduced rates, and it’s sort of like this big, fun family event on Sundays.”
