With the annual Leelanau Enterprise snowfall contest deadline now closed, Michiganders now await for the most important weather factor in determining their guesses: snowfall.
And according to staff at the National Weather Service Gaylord, snow could be well on its way as soon as mid next week.
“It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Leelanau does get some snow tonight…” said Andy Sullivan on Wednesday morning, meteorologist with the National Weather Service Gaylord. “There will probably be some cold air coming in next week, so we’re looking at potential for some accumulating lake effect snow here in the middle of next week. So that would be probably when Leelanau County would have the best chance of seeing their first accumulating snow.”
From the entries submitted this year, the lowest total inches of snowfall estimated for the period between Oct. 15 through April 15 was approximately 39 inches, while the highest guess was 228.4 inches. The majority of the 500 plus entries had guesses averaging over 100 inches.
However, Sullivan said there’s a good possibility that the total snowfall for the season will be anywhere between those two low and high guesses as cooler weather patterns slowly start to kick in again.
“I can say with high confidence that you’ll have more than 62 inches this winter,” he said. “I would say you’re probably looking at somewhere in between 120-140 inches, but that’s my best estimate at this point. Maybe not quite to normal, but definitely a lot more snow than last winter.”
Last year’s 2023-2024 total snowfall count for the area of 62 inches was unusually low. Due to the El Nino that was in place in 2023 into 2024, the low total snowfall accumulation also followed one of the warmest December and February months on record. September of this year was also one for the record books.
In Traverse City, September was the third warmest on record, with the hottest temperatures recorded at 91 degrees on Sept. 15 and 16. It was also the fourth driest on record, with only 0.86 inches of precipitation reported for the entire month.
Sullivan said he ultimately thinks snow accumulation this winter will be slow to develop, but by the time it’s over, snowfall will be pretty decent in comparison to last year’s 62 inches.
“The mild trend has been in place here for like a year and a half, it really hasn’t wavered much at all and mild temperatures are continuing — through this point, they’ve been pretty consistently warm everywhere in northern Michigan,” he said. “So we think eventually here, even as early as next week, we will start seeing our first shot of arctic air, and that’s maybe a sign of what’s to come.”
